NFLNO PLAY research

Drew Sample

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati BengalsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 36 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY

Line Market 1.5

Price-185

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel62.9%

Market impliedMarket64.9%

Model − market-2.0 ptsPrice -185

Edge Derived: -2.0 pts
EV per 1u Derived: -0.031u
Sample Measured: 36 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:39 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receptionsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:39 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Drew Sample

Cam Ward

Historical sample

36 g7 g

Last-10 hit rate

—86%

Best model − market gap

-1.8 pts+14.7 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Cam Ward

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 0 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 1.8
Last 5: 1.6
Last 10: 1.3
Home · Away: 2.0 · 1.7

DEN

BAL

CLE

PIT

MIA

BAL

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	@ BAL	2	—
Oct 11	@ MIA	1	—
Sep 27	@ PIT	1	1.5	Under
Sep 13	vs TB	3	—
Jan 9	@ CLE	1	—
Jan 2	vs KC	0	—
Dec 26	vs BAL	2	—
Dec 19	@ DEN	1	—
Dec 12	vs SF	1	—
Nov 21	@ LV	1	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 0 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 12.0
Last 5: 11.2
Last 10: 8.4
Home · Away: 17.9 · 12.0

DEN

BAL

CLE

PIT

MIA

BAL

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	@ BAL	24	—
Oct 11	@ MIA	5	—
Sep 27	@ PIT	0	6.5	Under
Sep 13	vs TB	19	—
Jan 9	@ CLE	8	—
Jan 2	vs KC	0	—
Dec 26	vs BAL	9	—
Dec 19	@ DEN	2	—
Dec 12	vs SF	14	—
Nov 21	@ LV	3	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Cam Wardpassing yards6/7 last 10 Samaje Perinerushing yards9/10 last 10 Daniel Bellingerreceptions7/9 last 10 Ja'Marr Chasereceptions30 g sample Wan'Dale Robinsonreceiving yards7 g sample Tony Pollardrushing yards56 g sample Gunnar Helmreceptions6 g sample Elic Ayomanorreceptions7 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:39 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.