Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · rushing yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 109/1090%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
0
Line on record
23.5
Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
21.0
Last 5
21.2
Last 10
17.1
Home · Away
17.8 · 23.0
11
SF
30
DEN
0
BAL
4
KC
20
TB
6
HOU
9
PIT
7
JAX
68
MIA
16
BAL
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
@ BAL
16
26.5
Under
Oct 11
@ MIA
68
14.5
Over
Oct 4
vs JAX
7
14.5
Under
Sep 27
@ PIT
9
14.5
Under
Sep 20
@ HOU
6
17.5
Under
Sep 13
vs TB
20
—
Jan 2
vs KC
4
—
Dec 26
vs BAL
0
—
Dec 19
@ DEN
30
—
Dec 12
vs SF
11
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 0 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.2
Last 5
0.8
Last 10
1.6
Home · Away
1.4 · 1.2
4
SF
2
DEN
2
BAL
1
KC
3
TB
1
HOU
1
PIT
0
JAX
2
MIA
0
BAL
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
@ BAL
0
1.5
Under
Oct 11
@ MIA
2
—
Oct 4
vs JAX
0
1.5
Under
Sep 27
@ PIT
1
1.5
Under
Sep 20
@ HOU
1
1.5
Under
Sep 13
vs TB
3
—
Jan 2
vs KC
1
—
Dec 26
vs BAL
2
—
Dec 19
@ DEN
2
—
Dec 12
vs SF
4
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
10.2
Last 5
6.2
Last 10
11.2
Home · Away
9.1 · 9.9
22
SF
13
DEN
6
BAL
10
KC
30
TB
16
HOU
5
PIT
0
JAX
10
MIA
0
BAL
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
@ BAL
0
7.5
Under
Oct 11
@ MIA
10
—
Oct 4
vs JAX
0
9.5
Under
Sep 27
@ PIT
5
8.5
Under
Sep 20
@ HOU
16
7.5
Over
Sep 13
vs TB
30
—
Jan 2
vs KC
10
—
Dec 26
vs BAL
6
—
Dec 19
@ DEN
13
—
Dec 12
vs SF
22
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:47 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
