NFLNO PLAY research

Daniel Bellinger

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati BengalsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 9 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured: 7/9
MCP consistency Model: 29.3
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY

Line MarketUNDER 1.5

Price-165

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel68.0%

Market impliedMarket62.3%

Model − market+5.7 ptsPrice -165

Edge Derived: +5.7 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.092u
Sample Measured: 9 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:44 AM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receptionsMeasured

Cleared the line, last 107/978%

Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.

Current miss streak: 0
MCP consistency Model: 29.3
Line on record: 1.5

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:44 AM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Daniel Bellinger

Cam Ward

Historical sample

9 g7 g

Last-10 hit rate

78%86%

Best model − market gap

+11.9 pts+14.7 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Cam Ward

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsNo Hard Rock lines in these games

2026 season: 0.9
Last 5: 1.0
Last 10: 0.9
Home · Away: 0.8 · 1.0

NYJ

PHI

NYG

BAL

HOU

IND

CLE

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	vs CLE	1	—
Oct 18	@ IND	0	—
Oct 11	vs HOU	1	—
Oct 4	@ BAL	1	—
Sep 27	@ NYG	2	—
Sep 20	vs PHI	0	—
Sep 13	vs NYJ	1	—

Receiving yardsNo Hard Rock lines in these games

2026 season: 4.9
Last 5: 5.4
Last 10: 4.9
Home · Away: 4.0 · 6.0

NYJ

PHI

NYG

BAL

HOU

IND

CLE

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	vs CLE	4	—
Oct 18	@ IND	0	—
Oct 11	vs HOU	5	—
Oct 4	@ BAL	2	—
Sep 27	@ NYG	16	—
Sep 20	vs PHI	0	—
Sep 13	vs NYJ	7	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Cam Wardpassing yards6/7 last 10 Samaje Perinerushing yards9/10 last 10 Ja'Marr Chasereceptions30 g sample Wan'Dale Robinsonreceiving yards7 g sample Tony Pollardrushing yards56 g sample Gunnar Helmreceptions6 g sample Elic Ayomanorreceptions7 g sample Dohnte Meyersreceiving yards6 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:44 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.