NFLNO PLAY research

Zay Flowers

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameBaltimore Ravens @ Buffalo BillsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 8 games
Last 10 · receiving yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receiving yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 77.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel57.3%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+3.8 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +3.8 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.071u
Sample Measured: 8 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Zay Flowers

Derrick Henry

Historical sample

8 g101 g

Last-10 hit rate

—80%

Best model − market gap

+3.8 pts+1.9 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Derrick Henry

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 6.7
Last 5: 7.0
Last 10: 6.7
Home · Away: 8.0 · 6.0

IND

DAL

TEN

ATL

CLE

CIN

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	vs CIN	8	5.5	Over
Oct 18	@ CLE	6	5.5	Over
Oct 11	@ ATL	8	5.5	Over
Oct 4	vs TEN	8	4.5	Over
Sep 27	@ DAL	5	—
Sep 13	@ IND	5	5.5	Under

Receiving yardsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 101.3
Last 5: 91.6
Last 10: 101.3
Home · Away: 127.5 · 88.3

150

IND

DAL

118

TEN

ATL

CLE

137

CIN

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	vs CIN	137	63.5	Over
Oct 18	@ CLE	66	58.5	Over
Oct 11	@ ATL	53	70.5	Under
Oct 4	vs TEN	118	69.5	Over
Sep 27	@ DAL	84	—
Sep 13	@ IND	150	63.5	Over

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Derrick Henryreceptions8/10 last 10 Keon Colemanreceptions7/10 last 10 Khalil Shakirreceiving yards7/10 last 10 Dalton Kincaidreceiving yards13 g sample Lamar Jacksonpassing yards70 g sample Justice Hillreceptions41 g sample Ty Johnsonreceiving yards51 g sample Rashod Batemanreceiving yards23 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.