Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 108/1080%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
4.1
Line on record
1.5
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
82.7
Last 5
73.4
Last 10
87.6
Home · Away
92.4 · 136.9
143
BUF
86
KC
68
IND
144
IND
68
NO
89
DAL
73
TEN
102
ATL
58
CLE
45
CIN
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
vs CIN
45
84.5
Under
Oct 18
@ CLE
58
91.5
Under
Oct 11
@ ATL
102
81.5
Over
Oct 4
vs TEN
73
97.5
Under
Sep 27
@ DAL
89
91.5
Under
Sep 20
vs NO
68
91.5
Under
Sep 13
@ IND
144
—
Oct 31
@ IND
68
—
Oct 24
vs KC
86
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
143
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 1 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.4
Last 5
1.2
Last 10
1.4
Home · Away
1.6 · 1.3
2
BUF
2
KC
0
IND
1
IND
3
NO
1
DAL
2
TEN
1
ATL
1
CLE
1
CIN
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs CIN
1
1.5
Under
Oct 18
@ CLE
1
1.5
Under
Oct 11
@ ATL
1
1.5
Under
Oct 4
vs TEN
2
—
Sep 27
@ DAL
1
1.5
Under
Sep 20
vs NO
3
1.5
Over
Sep 13
@ IND
1
—
Oct 31
@ IND
0
—
Oct 24
vs KC
2
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
2
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
9.7
Last 5
6.0
Last 10
9.7
Home · Away
11.4 · 8.8
13
BUF
16
KC
0
IND
19
IND
19
NO
0
DAL
6
TEN
18
ATL
2
CLE
4
CIN
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs CIN
4
6.5
Under
Oct 18
@ CLE
2
6.5
Under
Oct 11
@ ATL
18
5.5
Over
Oct 4
vs TEN
6
7.5
Under
Sep 27
@ DAL
0
10.5
Under
Sep 20
vs NO
19
6.5
Over
Sep 13
@ IND
19
—
Oct 31
@ IND
0
—
Oct 24
vs KC
16
—
Oct 18
vs BUF
13
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
