Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 0 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.5
Last 5
1.0
Last 10
10.5
Home · Away
19.8 · 15.1
5
MIA
42
HOU
1
PHI
17
NO
35
TB
-1
BUF
0
LAC
3
NE
0
LA
3
LV
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 18
@ LV
3
—
Oct 12
@ LA
0
—
Oct 4
vs NE
3
4.5
Under
Sep 27
vs LAC
0
—
Jan 9
@ BUF
-1
—
Jan 2
vs TB
35
—
Dec 12
vs NO
17
—
Dec 5
vs PHI
1
—
Nov 28
@ HOU
42
—
Nov 21
vs MIA
5
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.0
Last 5
2.4
Last 10
2.2
Home · Away
2.2 · 1.8
1
MIA
0
HOU
2
PHI
4
NO
3
TB
0
BUF
4
LAC
2
NE
4
LA
2
LV
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 18
@ LV
2
1.5
Over
Oct 12
@ LA
4
—
Oct 4
vs NE
2
1.5
Over
Sep 27
vs LAC
4
—
Jan 9
@ BUF
0
—
Jan 2
vs TB
3
—
Dec 12
vs NO
4
—
Dec 5
vs PHI
2
—
Nov 28
@ HOU
0
—
Nov 21
vs MIA
1
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 2 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
38.8
Last 5
31.0
Last 10
26.4
Home · Away
19.9 · 18.4
8
MIA
0
HOU
14
PHI
40
NO
47
TB
0
BUF
50
LAC
9
NE
72
LA
24
LV
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 18
@ LV
24
15.5
Over
Oct 12
@ LA
72
—
Oct 4
vs NE
9
11.5
Under
Sep 27
vs LAC
50
—
Jan 9
@ BUF
0
—
Jan 2
vs TB
47
—
Dec 12
vs NO
40
—
Dec 5
vs PHI
14
—
Nov 28
@ HOU
0
—
Nov 21
vs MIA
8
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
