Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
20.0
Last 5
23.2
Last 10
16.1
Home · Away
9.4 · 14.9
0
JAX
0
NYG
21
CIN
18
IND
6
NO
33
DAL
3
TEN
73
ATL
0
CLE
7
CIN
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 25
vs CIN
7
—
Oct 18
@ CLE
0
12.5
Under
Oct 11
@ ATL
73
11.5
Over
Oct 4
vs TEN
3
—
Sep 27
@ DAL
33
13.5
Over
Sep 20
vs NO
6
13.5
Under
Sep 13
@ IND
18
7.5
Over
Jan 3
@ CIN
21
—
Dec 27
vs NYG
0
—
Dec 20
vs JAX
0
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.9
Last 5
2.0
Last 10
1.4
Home · Away
0.9 · 0.6
1
JAX
0
NYG
0
CIN
1
IND
2
NO
0
DAL
2
TEN
2
ATL
3
CLE
3
CIN
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs CIN
3
1.5
Over
Oct 18
@ CLE
3
1.5
Over
Oct 11
@ ATL
2
1.5
Over
Oct 4
vs TEN
2
—
Sep 27
@ DAL
0
1.5
Under
Sep 20
vs NO
2
—
Sep 13
@ IND
1
1.5
Under
Jan 3
@ CIN
0
—
Dec 27
vs NYG
0
—
Dec 20
vs JAX
1
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
12.0
Last 5
12.4
Last 10
9.2
Home · Away
7.3 · 3.4
8
JAX
0
NYG
0
CIN
10
IND
12
NO
0
DAL
22
TEN
5
ATL
9
CLE
26
CIN
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs CIN
26
9.5
Over
Oct 18
@ CLE
9
10.5
Under
Oct 11
@ ATL
5
8.5
Under
Oct 4
vs TEN
22
—
Sep 27
@ DAL
0
13.5
Under
Sep 20
vs NO
12
13.5
Under
Sep 13
@ IND
10
11.5
Under
Jan 3
@ CIN
0
—
Dec 27
vs NYG
0
—
Dec 20
vs JAX
8
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
