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NFLNO PLAY research

Tommy Tremble

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameCarolina Panthers @ Green Bay PackersThu, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ETGame intelligence →
Historical sample Measured
22 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured
5/10
MCP consistency Model
32.7
Markets evaluated
4
Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY
Line MarketUNDER 2.5
Price-160
Sportsbook—
REPICOM modelModel58.6%
Market impliedMarket61.5%
Model − market-3.0 ptsPrice -160
Edge Derived
-3.0 pts
EV per 1u Derived
-0.048u
Sample Measured
22 g
REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 9:24 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 105/1050%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
32.7
Line on record
2.5
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 9:24 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample
recent10_games
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data
No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.
Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market
REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts
Compare playersPublic research only
Tommy Tremble
John Metchie III
Historical sample
22 g8 g
Last-10 hit rate
50%88%
Best model − market gap
-0.4 pts+16.3 pts
Markets evaluated
44
Open John Metchie III
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.7
Last 5
2.6
Last 10
2.3
Home · Away
1.7 · 1.7
DateOppReceptionsLine
Oct 25vs TB11.5Under
Oct 18@ PHI41.5Over
Oct 4vs DET41.5Over
Sep 27@ CLE3—
Sep 20@ ATL1—
Sep 13vs CHI31.5Over
Jan 9@ TB2—
Dec 26vs TB2—
Dec 19@ BUF1—
Dec 12vs ATL2—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
22.7
Last 5
22.2
Last 10
19.6
Home · Away
14.3 · 15.7
DateOppReceiving yardsLine
Oct 25vs TB816.5Under
Oct 18@ PHI4612.5Over
Oct 4vs DET1213.5Under
Sep 27@ CLE41—
Sep 20@ ATL4—
Sep 13vs CHI2510.5Over
Jan 9@ TB7—
Dec 26vs TB22—
Dec 19@ BUF8—
Dec 12vs ATL23—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players
John Metchie IIIreceptions7/8 last 10Tetairoa McMillanreceptions5/7 last 10Tucker Kraftreceiving yards7/10 last 10Christian Watsonreceiving yards7/10 last 10MarShawn Lloydreceiving yards5/7 last 10Chuba Hubbardreceptions6/10 last 10Josh Jacobsreceiving yards7/10 last 10Jalen Cokerreceiving yards4/6 last 10
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 9:24 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.