NFLNO PLAY research

Josh Allen

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameBaltimore Ravens @ Buffalo BillsSun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 82 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 250.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel52.2%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market-1.3 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: -1.3 pts
EV per 1u Derived: -0.024u
Sample Measured: 82 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Josh Allen

Derrick Henry

Historical sample

82 g101 g

Last-10 hit rate

—80%

Best model − market gap

-1.3 pts+1.9 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Derrick Henry

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 4 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 250.7
Last 5: 234.0
Last 10: 238.7
Home · Away: 225.7 · 300.2

210

CAR

314

120

ATL

239

NYJ

334

HOU

248

DET

204

LAC

253

210

255

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 18	@ LV	255	244.5	Over
Oct 12	@ LA	210	—
Oct 4	vs NE	253	243.5	Over
Sep 27	vs LAC	204	—
Sep 17	vs DET	248	247.5	Over
Sep 13	@ HOU	334	220.5	Over
Jan 9	vs NYJ	239	—
Jan 2	vs ATL	120	—
Dec 26	@ NE	314	—
Dec 19	vs CAR	210	—

Rushing yardsOver the line in 1 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 40.0
Last 5: 43.4
Last 10: 47.2
Home · Away: 33.9 · 44.5

CAR

ATL

NYJ

HOU

DET

LAC

121

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 18	@ LV	1	33.5	Under
Oct 12	@ LA	121	—
Oct 4	vs NE	4	32.5	Under
Sep 27	vs LAC	22	—
Sep 17	vs DET	69	29.5	Over
Sep 13	@ HOU	23	30.5	Under
Jan 9	vs NYJ	63	—
Jan 2	vs ATL	81	—
Dec 26	@ NE	64	—
Dec 19	vs CAR	24	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

Derrick Henryreceptions8/10 last 10 Keon Colemanreceptions7/10 last 10 Khalil Shakirreceiving yards7/10 last 10 Dalton Kincaidreceiving yards13 g sample Lamar Jacksonpassing yards70 g sample Justice Hillreceptions41 g sample Ty Johnsonreceiving yards51 g sample Rashod Batemanreceiving yards23 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.