Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
1.3
Last 5
1.4
Last 10
1.7
Home · Away
2.8 · 2.2
4
CAR
2
NE
0
ATL
3
NYJ
1
HOU
2
DET
1
LAC
2
NE
1
LA
1
LV
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 18
@ LV
1
1.5
Under
Oct 12
@ LA
1
—
Oct 4
vs NE
2
1.5
Over
Sep 27
vs LAC
1
—
Sep 17
vs DET
2
1.5
Over
Sep 13
@ HOU
1
1.5
Under
Jan 9
vs NYJ
3
—
Jan 2
vs ATL
0
—
Dec 26
@ NE
2
—
Dec 19
vs CAR
4
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 4 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
6.0
Last 5
5.8
Last 10
13.4
Home · Away
28.1 · 28.1
38
CAR
11
NE
0
ATL
49
NYJ
7
HOU
5
DET
5
LAC
13
NE
6
LA
0
LV
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 18
@ LV
0
10.5
Under
Oct 12
@ LA
6
—
Oct 4
vs NE
13
9.5
Over
Sep 27
vs LAC
5
—
Sep 17
vs DET
5
12.5
Under
Sep 13
@ HOU
7
14.5
Under
Jan 9
vs NYJ
49
—
Jan 2
vs ATL
0
—
Dec 26
@ NE
11
—
Dec 19
vs CAR
38
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:35 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
