Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · rushing yardsMeasured
∅
Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Rushing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
68.0
Last 5
61.4
Last 10
53.8
Home · Away
39.2 · 59.2
0
CHI
32
SEA
30
GB
124
CAR
45
MIN
84
PHI
58
NYJ
43
GB
44
ATL
78
NE
Date
Opp
Rushing yards
Line
Oct 22
vs NE
78
63.5
Over
Oct 18
@ ATL
44
65.5
Under
Oct 11
@ GB
43
85.5
Under
Oct 4
vs NYJ
58
66.5
Under
Sep 28
vs PHI
84
62.5
Over
Sep 20
vs MIN
45
—
Sep 13
@ CAR
124
—
Jan 9
vs GB
30
—
Jan 2
@ SEA
32
—
Nov 25
vs CHI
0
—
ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.1
Last 5
3.2
Last 10
3.1
Home · Away
4.2 · 3.7
3
CHI
2
SEA
4
GB
1
CAR
5
MIN
2
PHI
2
NYJ
4
GB
4
ATL
4
NE
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 22
vs NE
4
2.5
Over
Oct 18
@ ATL
4
2.5
Over
Oct 11
@ GB
4
2.5
Over
Oct 4
vs NYJ
2
1.5
Over
Sep 28
vs PHI
2
2.5
Under
Sep 20
vs MIN
5
—
Sep 13
@ CAR
1
—
Jan 9
vs GB
4
—
Jan 2
@ SEA
2
—
Nov 25
vs CHI
3
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
21.7
Last 5
17.6
Last 10
18.4
Home · Away
29.7 · 28.5
9
CHI
7
SEA
16
GB
10
CAR
54
MIN
4
PHI
16
NYJ
30
GB
26
ATL
12
NE
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 22
vs NE
12
21.5
Under
Oct 18
@ ATL
26
15.5
Over
Oct 11
@ GB
30
19.5
Over
Oct 4
vs NYJ
16
13.5
Over
Sep 28
vs PHI
4
13.5
Under
Sep 20
vs MIN
54
—
Sep 13
@ CAR
10
—
Jan 9
vs GB
16
—
Jan 2
@ SEA
7
—
Nov 25
vs CHI
9
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Nov 1, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
