Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 107/1070%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
52.8
Line on record
99.5
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
8.3
Last 5
8.2
Last 10
8.3
Home · Away
6.8 · 10.3
8
NE
9
ARI
10
WAS
5
LAC
5
SF
12
DEN
9
KC
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs KC
9
7.5
Over
Oct 15
@ DEN
12
6.5
Over
Oct 11
vs SF
5
6.5
Under
Oct 4
vs LAC
5
6.5
Under
Sep 27
@ WAS
10
6.5
Over
Sep 20
@ ARI
9
6.5
Over
Sep 9
vs NE
8
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 5 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
123.9
Last 5
118.0
Last 10
123.9
Home · Away
112.5 · 139.0
122
NE
155
ARI
128
WAS
76
LAC
102
SF
134
DEN
150
KC
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs KC
150
93.5
Over
Oct 15
@ DEN
134
94.5
Over
Oct 11
vs SF
102
96.5
Over
Oct 4
vs LAC
76
92.5
Under
Sep 27
@ WAS
128
92.5
Over
Sep 20
@ ARI
155
81.5
Over
Sep 9
vs NE
122
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
