NFLNO PLAY research

Sam Darnold

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameChicago Bears @ Seattle SeahawksMon, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 60 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 2

Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY

Line Market 233.5

Price-115

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel55.0%

Market impliedMarket53.5%

Model − market+1.5 ptsPrice -115

Edge Derived: +1.5 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.028u
Sample Measured: 60 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · passing yardsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Sam Darnold

Rome Odunze

Historical sample

60 g9 g

Last-10 hit rate

—78%

Best model − market gap

+1.5 pts+11.9 pts

Markets evaluated

Open Rome Odunze

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

Passing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 215.0
Last 5: 255.4
Last 10: 200.3
Home · Away: 194.6 · 212.0

172

190

132

219

379

WAS

168

LAC

195

278

DEN

257

Date	Opp	Passing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs KC	257	230.5	Over
Oct 15	@ DEN	278	227.5	Over
Oct 11	vs SF	195	234.5	Under
Oct 4	vs LAC	168	233.5	Under
Sep 27	@ WAS	379	222.5	Over
Sep 9	vs NE	13	—
Jan 9	@ TB	219	—
Jan 2	@ NO	132	—
Dec 26	vs TB	190	—
Nov 7	vs NE	172	—

Rushing yardsOver the line in 4 of last 5 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 8.7
Last 5: 10.4
Last 10: 9.8
Home · Away: 14.7 · 15.1

WAS

LAC

DEN

Date	Opp	Rushing yards	Line
Oct 25	vs KC	17	4.5	Over
Oct 15	@ DEN	19	5.5	Over
Oct 11	vs SF	5	4.5	Over
Oct 4	vs LAC	6	4.5	Over
Sep 27	@ WAS	5	6.5	Under
Sep 9	vs NE	0	—
Jan 9	@ TB	19	—
Jan 2	@ NO	7	—
Dec 26	vs TB	11	—
Nov 7	vs NE	9	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game6 players

Rome Odunzereceptions7/9 last 10 Caleb Williamspassing yards5/6 last 10 Jaxon Smith-Njigbareceiving yards7/10 last 10 Luther Burden IIIreceptions9 g sample Colston Lovelandreceptions9 g sample Kalif Raymondreceiving yards62 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:34 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.