Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receptionsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 107/978%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
59.2
Line on record
3.5
Comparable miss streaks: 1 on record · next-game hit rate 100.0%. Context only — not a “due” signal.
Source & method · as of Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 3 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
3.4
Last 5
3.8
Last 10
3.4
Home · Away
4.0 · 2.7
2
CAR
3
MIN
3
PHI
6
NYJ
3
GB
3
ATL
4
NE
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 22
vs NE
4
3.5
Over
Oct 18
@ ATL
3
3.5
Under
Oct 11
@ GB
3
3.5
Under
Oct 4
vs NYJ
6
2.5
Over
Sep 28
vs PHI
3
2.5
Over
Sep 20
vs MIN
3
—
Sep 13
@ CAR
2
3.5
Under
Receiving yardsOver the line in 4 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
54.4
Last 5
57.2
Last 10
54.4
Home · Away
62.5 · 43.7
52
CAR
43
MIN
44
PHI
94
NYJ
40
GB
39
ATL
69
NE
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 22
vs NE
69
43.5
Over
Oct 18
@ ATL
39
42.5
Under
Oct 11
@ GB
40
40.5
Under
Oct 4
vs NYJ
94
32.5
Over
Sep 28
vs PHI
44
26.5
Over
Sep 20
vs MIN
43
—
Sep 13
@ CAR
52
40.5
Over
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 28, 3:37 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
