Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.
A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · receiving yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/1060%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
1
MCP consistency Model
40.3
Line on record
29.5
Comparable miss streaks: 10 on record · next-game hit rate 90.0%. Context only — not a “due” signal.
Source & method · as of Nov 1, 3:36 PM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
ReceptionsOver the line in 2 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
2.6
Last 5
2.8
Last 10
4.1
Home · Away
5.6 · 7.7
10
MIN
6
BAL
7
SF
2
NE
2
ARI
4
WAS
1
LAC
2
SF
5
DEN
2
KC
Date
Opp
Receptions
Line
Oct 25
vs KC
2
2.5
Under
Oct 15
@ DEN
5
2.5
Over
Oct 11
vs SF
2
2.5
Under
Oct 4
vs LAC
1
2.5
Under
Sep 27
@ WAS
4
2.5
Over
Sep 20
@ ARI
2
2.5
Under
Sep 9
vs NE
2
—
Jan 9
vs SF
7
—
Jan 2
@ BAL
6
—
Dec 26
@ MIN
10
—
Receiving yardsOver the line in 2 of last 6 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
28.4
Last 5
28.8
Last 10
52.1
Home · Away
70.1 · 92.1
109
MIN
95
BAL
118
SF
35
NE
20
ARI
46
WAS
13
LAC
15
SF
50
DEN
20
KC
Date
Opp
Receiving yards
Line
Oct 25
vs KC
20
25.5
Under
Oct 15
@ DEN
50
22.5
Over
Oct 11
vs SF
15
23.5
Under
Oct 4
vs LAC
13
24.5
Under
Sep 27
@ WAS
46
21.5
Over
Sep 20
@ ARI
20
23.5
Under
Sep 9
vs NE
35
—
Jan 9
vs SF
118
—
Jan 2
@ BAL
95
—
Dec 26
@ MIN
109
—
Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.
SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Nov 1, 3:36 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.
