NFLNO PLAY research

Bo Melton

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameCarolina Panthers @ Green Bay PackersThu, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 10 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured: —
MCP consistency Model: —
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY

Line Market 0.5

Price-130

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel57.2%

Market impliedMarket56.5%

Model − market+0.7 ptsPrice -130

Edge Derived: +0.7 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.013u
Sample Measured: 10 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but the player does not meet the 20-game publication history floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:40 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receptionsMeasured

Recent formNot available yet — requires a verified non-qualified intelligence row for this player and market. REPICOM does not estimate missing data.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:40 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Bo Melton

John Metchie III

Historical sample

10 g8 g

Last-10 hit rate

—88%

Best model − market gap

+0.7 pts+16.3 pts

Markets evaluated

Open John Metchie III

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 0 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 0.7
Last 5: 0.8
Last 10: 0.7
Home · Away: 1.0 · 0.5

MIN

NYJ

ATL

CHI

DAL

DET

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	@ DET	1	—
Oct 18	vs DAL	0	1.5	Under
Oct 11	vs CHI	3	—
Oct 4	@ TB	0	—
Sep 24	vs ATL	0	—
Sep 20	@ NYJ	0	—
Sep 13	@ MIN	1	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 0 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 4.9
Last 5: 4.8
Last 10: 4.9
Home · Away: 6.7 · 3.5

MIN

NYJ

ATL

CHI

DAL

DET

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	@ DET	4	—
Oct 18	vs DAL	0	10.5	Under
Oct 11	vs CHI	20	—
Oct 4	@ TB	0	—
Sep 24	vs ATL	0	—
Sep 20	@ NYJ	0	—
Sep 13	@ MIN	10	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

John Metchie IIIreceptions7/8 last 10 Jonnu Smithreceptions8/10 last 10 Mitchell Evansreceptions7 g sample Tetairoa McMillanreceptions7 g sample Christian Watsonreceiving yards10 g sample Chuba Hubbardreceiving yards23 g sample Tucker Kraftreceiving yards10 g sample MarShawn Lloydreceiving yards7 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:40 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.