NFLNO PLAY research

Jonnu Smith

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameCarolina Panthers @ Green Bay PackersThu, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ETGame intelligence →

Historical sample Measured: 82 games
Last 10 · receptions Measured: 8/10
MCP consistency Model: 22.2
Markets evaluated: 4

Evidence · receptionsNO PLAY

Line MarketOVER 0.5

Price-125

Sportsbook—

REPICOM modelModel69.9%

Market impliedMarket55.6%

Model − market+14.3 ptsPrice -125

Edge Derived: +14.3 pts
EV per 1u Derived: +0.258u
Sample Measured: 82 g

REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model signal exists, but MCP consistency did not reach a qualifying band.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:42 PM ET

Source: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic: Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation: Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample: history_games on the row
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data: A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.

Recent form · receptionsMeasured

Cleared the line, last 108/1080%

Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.

Current miss streak: 0
MCP consistency Model: 22.2
Line on record: 0.5

Source & method · as of Oct 29, 3:42 PM ET

Source: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic: Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation: recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample: recent10_games
Freshness: Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data: No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.

Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market

REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts

Compare playersPublic research only

Compare with

Jonnu Smith

John Metchie III

Historical sample

82 g8 g

Last-10 hit rate

80%88%

Best model − market gap

+14.3 pts+16.3 pts

Markets evaluated

Open John Metchie III

Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line

ReceptionsOver the line in 0 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 1.5
Last 5: 1.2
Last 10: 1.2
Home · Away: 2.4 · 2.1

TEN

BUF

IND

BUF

JAX

MIA

MIN

ATL

DET

Date	Opp	Receptions	Line
Oct 25	@ DET	1	—
Oct 4	@ TB	1	1.5	Under
Sep 24	vs ATL	2	—
Sep 13	@ MIN	2	—
Jan 9	@ MIA	0	—
Jan 2	vs JAX	1	—
Dec 26	vs BUF	0	—
Dec 18	@ IND	1	—
Dec 6	@ BUF	1	—
Nov 28	vs TEN	3	—

Receiving yardsOver the line in 1 of last 1 with a Hard Rock line

2026 season: 23.5
Last 5: 18.8
Last 10: 17.8
Home · Away: 28.1 · 21.4

TEN

BUF

IND

BUF

JAX

MIA

MIN

ATL

DET

Date	Opp	Receiving yards	Line
Oct 25	@ DET	9	—
Oct 4	@ TB	19	6.5	Over
Sep 24	vs ATL	16	—
Sep 13	@ MIN	50	—
Jan 9	@ MIA	0	—
Jan 2	vs JAX	20	—
Dec 26	vs BUF	0	—
Dec 18	@ IND	3	—
Dec 6	@ BUF	12	—
Nov 28	vs TEN	49	—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

Also researched in this game8 players

John Metchie IIIreceptions7/8 last 10 Mitchell Evansreceptions7 g sample Tetairoa McMillanreceptions7 g sample Christian Watsonreceiving yards10 g sample Chuba Hubbardreceiving yards23 g sample Tucker Kraftreceiving yards10 g sample MarShawn Lloydreceiving yards7 g sample Brycen Tremaynereceiving yards7 g sample

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Oct 29, 3:42 PM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.