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NFLNO PLAY research

Trevor Lawrence

Position and team not on the research feed

Next gameJacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore RavensThu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ETGame intelligence →
Historical sample Measured
27 games
Last 10 · passing yards Measured
6/10
MCP consistency Model
73.5
Markets evaluated
2
Evidence · passing yardsNO PLAY
Line MarketUNDER 244.5
Price-115
Sportsbook—
REPICOM modelModel58.9%
Market impliedMarket53.5%
Model − market+5.5 ptsPrice -115
Edge Derived
+5.5 pts
EV per 1u Derived
+0.102u
Sample Measured
27 g
REPICOM decisionNO PLAY

Model confidence is below the 60% NFL qualification floor.

A positive gap is not a pick: qualification also requires confidence, edge, expected value and a sufficient sample — those rules are unchanged.
Source & method · as of Nov 2, 3:01 AM ET
Source
repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY research rows, read server-side)
Statistic
Probability of the evaluated side, in %
Calculation
Model = model_probability. Market = captured market_probability; if absent, implied from american_odds (−odds ÷ (−odds + 100), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100)). Gap = model − market, in percentage points. EV = p × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) per 1u.
Sample
history_games on the row
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache); the market price is the one captured with the evaluation
Missing data
A missing probability or price shows “—” and no bar. Nothing is estimated.
Recent form · passing yardsMeasured
Cleared the line, last 106/1060%
Count of hits in the sample, not an ordered game log.
Current miss streak
0
MCP consistency Model
73.5
Line on record
244.5
Source & method · as of Nov 2, 3:01 AM ET
Source
repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 — non-qualified, unlocked rows only, joined on player + market (+ game_id)
Statistic
Games that cleared the line, out of the last 10 (count)
Calculation
recent10_hits ÷ recent10_games. Dots show the count, not the game order.
Sample
recent10_games
Freshness
Read on every request (no cache)
Missing data
No confident join → “Recent form unavailable”.
Market map · every evaluated marketTap a market
REPICOM modelMarket impliedGap in pts
Compare playersPublic research only
Trevor Lawrence
Rome Odunze
Historical sample
27 g9 g
Last-10 hit rate
60%89%
Best model − market gap
+5.5 pts+17.6 pts
Markets evaluated
24
Open Rome Odunze
Game-by-game · real game logs vs the Hard Rock line
Passing yardsOver the line in 3 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
241.4
Last 5
251.2
Last 10
238.6
Home · Away
224.3 · 219.1
DateOppPassing yardsLine
Nov 1vs IND210239.5Under
Oct 18vs HOU306230.5Over
Oct 11vs PHI331227.5Over
Oct 4@ CIN227261.5Under
Sep 27vs NE182229.5Under
Sep 20@ DEN189220.5Under
Sep 13vs CLE245236.5Over
Jan 9vs IND223—
Jan 2@ NE193—
Dec 26@ NYJ280—
Rushing yardsOver the line in 2 of last 7 with a Hard Rock line
2026 season
11.4
Last 5
14.2
Last 10
15.0
Home · Away
18.9 · 14.9
DateOppRushing yardsLine
Nov 1vs IND1011.5Under
Oct 18vs HOU1113.5Under
Oct 11vs PHI2513.5Over
Oct 4@ CIN014.5Under
Sep 27vs NE2516.5Over
Sep 20@ DEN616.5Under
Sep 13vs CLE316.5Under
Jan 9vs IND17—
Jan 2@ NE16—
Dec 26@ NYJ37—

Stats: nflverse game logs, regular season. Line: Hard Rock's final line before each game, when we captured one. Green bar = over the line, red = under.

SourcesResearch: repicom_public_nfl_intelligence_v1 (NO PLAY rows) · Form: repicom_nfl_intelligence_v1 (non-qualified rows only) · Read live at Nov 2, 3:01 AM ET.Member-qualified and locked player markets are never shown on public research pages. A research signal is not a REPICOM play.